Dragons and Vols

Mid-American Conference Tournament (1st round Mon at higher seed, 2nd Rd/QF/SF/F Wed-Sat in Cleveland)
*TV: Final is Saturday at 8PM on ESPN2

*Format: All twelve conference teams make it to the tournament in a bit of a convoluted format. The bottom eight will play two games (Monday and Wednesday) to make it into the main bracket where they'll meet the 3rd and 4th seeds coming off double byes in the QF. For the second time this Championship Week we see a triple bye with Akron and Buffalo not playing until Sunday.

*At-Large Hopes: This league was a semi-regular multi-bid league back in the late '90s, but they haven't gotten two bids since 1999 despite coming close a few times. This year won't break the streak.

*Who to Watch: Almost anyone in the East, although Akron (beat Mississippi State) and Buffalo (beat Dayton) getting three helps them out quite a bit. This league doesn't seed according to its two divisions, which is a good thing considering Eastern Michigan won the West despite an overall 14-18 record. The last three champions were seeded 6, 9, and 5 so don't count out Kent State (beat West Virginia), Ohio, or Bowling Green (beat Temple), either.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament (Tues-Sat in Winston-Salem)
*Format: All 13 teams in the newly expanded MEAC play, with the top three getting byes.

*TV: The championship is set for Saturday at 1PM on the U.

*At-Large Hopes: It's a success every year that this tournament's winner isn't relegated to Dayton.

*Who to Watch: Savannah State won the league crown in its first year in the circuit, just a few years removed from their 9-102 start in DI from 2002-2005. It's a pretty amazing turnaround. This is their first winning season against DI opponents and given that they languished in the even more obscure reaches of independent status for the past decade, this is the Tigers' first conference tournament and first shot at the Dance.


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Part of the story this weekend was how bubble-y mid-majors lost in their conference tournaments. Drexel made it to the CAA finals and now has a few more days to sweat to see whether they stay home or not, while things were even uglier for teams like Iona, Middle Tennessee, and Oral Roberts, all of whom probably wasted outstanding seasons with losses in the conference tournaments' semifinal round.

Drexel in particular is an odd case. It's tough to say that they don't live up to the standards of last year's VCU team, but their resume is just terribly barren. They split two games against the Rams, losing the important one, and also lost to Virginia and St Joseph's, putting them at 1-3 all season against teams in tournament contention. Their computer numbers are bad with an RPI of 66 and a 210 SOS. They simply played no one.

That having been said, they did go 27-6 from a conference that has proven itself when its borderline teams are selected as at-larges. The committee may say that makes no difference, but I have a hard time believing that they're impartial enough not to let that bias them. They may not seem deserving, but in the 68 team era of week bubbles and parity in college hoops, they don't stack up as being much more flawed than North Carolina State (0-8 vs top 50 teams) or Northwestern (1-10 vs the same).

Meanwhile the most interesting case may be Tennesse, which beat Vandy to close out the regular season as the number two seed in the SEC, albeit one that finished six games off of Kentucky's torrid pace. The Vols are just 17-13 with an RPI of 75, numbers typically associated with teams hoping to get an NIT bid, but they do have four top 50 wins this season and get credit for playing better after the late arrival of Jarnell Stokes. Some *ahem* prognosticators have them banging down the door, but I'm not sure I see that, even this season. Tennessee needs to win at least two in NOLA this weekend to have any chance, but realistically I'm not sure that's enough. The first game will be against Ole Miss or Auburn, so only a potential game against Vandy/Miss State in the semis does much good. Tennessee isn't lacking for wins, relatively speaking, but they sure do need to do a lot to overcome their wretched nonconference stretch of losses to Oakland, Pitt, Austin Peay, and Charleston.

An updated cut-line projection is coming up.