We were mercifully spared a week of analysis about whether or not Harvard deserves an at-large thanks to Princeton going to Philly and beating Penn last night in the final game of the Ivy League season, giving Harvard sole claim to the league title and the corresponding at-large berth.
It's a big day for Championship week as the Big East Tournament has its second day, plus the start of the Big XII, Conference USA, and Pac-12 tournaments among others.
At the moment, with Harvard officially out of the at-large pool, we have 28 teams for 16 slots.
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT (Tues-Sat in New York)
*Format: You probably know by now, but all sixteen teams come to Madison Square Garden for an unwieldy five day, five round tournament littered with byes and double byes.
*TV: All 15 games will be on the ESPN family of networks with the title game in primetime on Saturday.
*At-Large Hopes: The Big East won't break its record of 11 bids from last season, but it very well could get 10. Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, South Florida, and Cincy all come into the tournament needing wins because of various holes in their resume. On the other hand, at this late stage, it's hard to construct a scenario where more than one of them miss the tournament so they key might not be so much to win as to avoid scarring damage. Seton Hall and UConn did that in the first round, with the Huskies than beating West Virginia in a huge matchup earlier today. Cincy actually got the double bye, but a loss could very well dip their RPI down to the 75 range. Seton Hall has a huge shot against Villanova tonight, and South Florida cannot afford a bad loss to Villanova in the night cap.
*Who to Watch: Syracuse is easily the class of the league and gets the benefit of two byes. Two of the other three schools who get to sit the first two nights would be hugely surprising winners. The best bet otherwise is the second seeded Marquette team led by Jae Crowder and Darrius Johnson-Odom. Look for Georgetown if you want a team that played today and has a shot. Their potential semifinal game against Syracuse could be especially bitter with the series possibly ending soon and the Orange squeaking out a win earlier this year in the Carrier Dome.
ATLANTIC TEN TOURNAMENT: (1st Round Tues at campus sites, QF/SF/Final Fri-Sat in Atlantic City)
*Format: Another example of doublespeak in a conference name, the A-10 invites its top 12 with Rhode Island and Fordham missing the field.
*TV: The rest of the tournament will be on the CBS family of networks with Sunday's championship on the flagship network at 1 and the rest on CBS Sports.
*At-Large Hopes: Plenty. Temple is in and Saint Louis looks to be a near lock. Xavier went from the top 10 to the bubble after their rumble in the Queen City with Cincy. St Joseph's is a fringe bubble team, and even UMass and Dayton could lay claim to an outside shot should they be able to win their next two games.
*Who to Watch: It's a wild tournament. The top two seeds are your favorites, but in reality any of the eight teams remaining have a non-trivial chance of winning the tournament. The good news for a team like UMass or Dayton is that they have two days to recover after winning what amounted to a play-in game yesterday meaning that, having won the extra game already, they're not likely to much more gassed than the teams with byes should they get to Sunday. In fact you could probably make an argument that the extra game will have kept them a bit sharper than their opening round opponents.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (QF Wed, SF/Final Fri/Sat in Katy, TX)
*Format: Eight teams made it with Southeastern Louisiana, Central Arkansas, Texas State, and Texas A&M-CC left out.
*TV: The final is Saturday at 2PM on ESPN2.
*At-Large Hopes: This league is play-in fodder more often than anything else. The league has never gotten two bids and has one team advance to the round of 32 since 1985.
*Who to Watch: Texas-Arlington ripped through the league at 15-1 and will be the favorite. Lamar may well be the second best team. Their coach is named Pat Knight. You may remember him from such meltdowns as: last month's press conference and his brief tenure at Texas tech succeeding his father.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Dragons and Vols
Mid-American Conference Tournament (1st round Mon at higher seed, 2nd Rd/QF/SF/F Wed-Sat in Cleveland)
*TV: Final is Saturday at 8PM on ESPN2
*Format: All twelve conference teams make it to the tournament in a bit of a convoluted format. The bottom eight will play two games (Monday and Wednesday) to make it into the main bracket where they'll meet the 3rd and 4th seeds coming off double byes in the QF. For the second time this Championship Week we see a triple bye with Akron and Buffalo not playing until Sunday.
*At-Large Hopes: This league was a semi-regular multi-bid league back in the late '90s, but they haven't gotten two bids since 1999 despite coming close a few times. This year won't break the streak.
*Who to Watch: Almost anyone in the East, although Akron (beat Mississippi State) and Buffalo (beat Dayton) getting three helps them out quite a bit. This league doesn't seed according to its two divisions, which is a good thing considering Eastern Michigan won the West despite an overall 14-18 record. The last three champions were seeded 6, 9, and 5 so don't count out Kent State (beat West Virginia), Ohio, or Bowling Green (beat Temple), either.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament (Tues-Sat in Winston-Salem)
*Format: All 13 teams in the newly expanded MEAC play, with the top three getting byes.
*TV: The championship is set for Saturday at 1PM on the U.
*At-Large Hopes: It's a success every year that this tournament's winner isn't relegated to Dayton.
*Who to Watch: Savannah State won the league crown in its first year in the circuit, just a few years removed from their 9-102 start in DI from 2002-2005. It's a pretty amazing turnaround. This is their first winning season against DI opponents and given that they languished in the even more obscure reaches of independent status for the past decade, this is the Tigers' first conference tournament and first shot at the Dance.
*********
Part of the story this weekend was how bubble-y mid-majors lost in their conference tournaments. Drexel made it to the CAA finals and now has a few more days to sweat to see whether they stay home or not, while things were even uglier for teams like Iona, Middle Tennessee, and Oral Roberts, all of whom probably wasted outstanding seasons with losses in the conference tournaments' semifinal round.
Drexel in particular is an odd case. It's tough to say that they don't live up to the standards of last year's VCU team, but their resume is just terribly barren. They split two games against the Rams, losing the important one, and also lost to Virginia and St Joseph's, putting them at 1-3 all season against teams in tournament contention. Their computer numbers are bad with an RPI of 66 and a 210 SOS. They simply played no one.
That having been said, they did go 27-6 from a conference that has proven itself when its borderline teams are selected as at-larges. The committee may say that makes no difference, but I have a hard time believing that they're impartial enough not to let that bias them. They may not seem deserving, but in the 68 team era of week bubbles and parity in college hoops, they don't stack up as being much more flawed than North Carolina State (0-8 vs top 50 teams) or Northwestern (1-10 vs the same).
Meanwhile the most interesting case may be Tennesse, which beat Vandy to close out the regular season as the number two seed in the SEC, albeit one that finished six games off of Kentucky's torrid pace. The Vols are just 17-13 with an RPI of 75, numbers typically associated with teams hoping to get an NIT bid, but they do have four top 50 wins this season and get credit for playing better after the late arrival of Jarnell Stokes. Some *ahem* prognosticators have them banging down the door, but I'm not sure I see that, even this season. Tennessee needs to win at least two in NOLA this weekend to have any chance, but realistically I'm not sure that's enough. The first game will be against Ole Miss or Auburn, so only a potential game against Vandy/Miss State in the semis does much good. Tennessee isn't lacking for wins, relatively speaking, but they sure do need to do a lot to overcome their wretched nonconference stretch of losses to Oakland, Pitt, Austin Peay, and Charleston.
An updated cut-line projection is coming up.
*TV: Final is Saturday at 8PM on ESPN2
*Format: All twelve conference teams make it to the tournament in a bit of a convoluted format. The bottom eight will play two games (Monday and Wednesday) to make it into the main bracket where they'll meet the 3rd and 4th seeds coming off double byes in the QF. For the second time this Championship Week we see a triple bye with Akron and Buffalo not playing until Sunday.
*At-Large Hopes: This league was a semi-regular multi-bid league back in the late '90s, but they haven't gotten two bids since 1999 despite coming close a few times. This year won't break the streak.
*Who to Watch: Almost anyone in the East, although Akron (beat Mississippi State) and Buffalo (beat Dayton) getting three helps them out quite a bit. This league doesn't seed according to its two divisions, which is a good thing considering Eastern Michigan won the West despite an overall 14-18 record. The last three champions were seeded 6, 9, and 5 so don't count out Kent State (beat West Virginia), Ohio, or Bowling Green (beat Temple), either.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament (Tues-Sat in Winston-Salem)
*Format: All 13 teams in the newly expanded MEAC play, with the top three getting byes.
*TV: The championship is set for Saturday at 1PM on the U.
*At-Large Hopes: It's a success every year that this tournament's winner isn't relegated to Dayton.
*Who to Watch: Savannah State won the league crown in its first year in the circuit, just a few years removed from their 9-102 start in DI from 2002-2005. It's a pretty amazing turnaround. This is their first winning season against DI opponents and given that they languished in the even more obscure reaches of independent status for the past decade, this is the Tigers' first conference tournament and first shot at the Dance.
*********
Part of the story this weekend was how bubble-y mid-majors lost in their conference tournaments. Drexel made it to the CAA finals and now has a few more days to sweat to see whether they stay home or not, while things were even uglier for teams like Iona, Middle Tennessee, and Oral Roberts, all of whom probably wasted outstanding seasons with losses in the conference tournaments' semifinal round.
Drexel in particular is an odd case. It's tough to say that they don't live up to the standards of last year's VCU team, but their resume is just terribly barren. They split two games against the Rams, losing the important one, and also lost to Virginia and St Joseph's, putting them at 1-3 all season against teams in tournament contention. Their computer numbers are bad with an RPI of 66 and a 210 SOS. They simply played no one.
That having been said, they did go 27-6 from a conference that has proven itself when its borderline teams are selected as at-larges. The committee may say that makes no difference, but I have a hard time believing that they're impartial enough not to let that bias them. They may not seem deserving, but in the 68 team era of week bubbles and parity in college hoops, they don't stack up as being much more flawed than North Carolina State (0-8 vs top 50 teams) or Northwestern (1-10 vs the same).
Meanwhile the most interesting case may be Tennesse, which beat Vandy to close out the regular season as the number two seed in the SEC, albeit one that finished six games off of Kentucky's torrid pace. The Vols are just 17-13 with an RPI of 75, numbers typically associated with teams hoping to get an NIT bid, but they do have four top 50 wins this season and get credit for playing better after the late arrival of Jarnell Stokes. Some *ahem* prognosticators have them banging down the door, but I'm not sure I see that, even this season. Tennessee needs to win at least two in NOLA this weekend to have any chance, but realistically I'm not sure that's enough. The first game will be against Ole Miss or Auburn, so only a potential game against Vandy/Miss State in the semis does much good. Tennessee isn't lacking for wins, relatively speaking, but they sure do need to do a lot to overcome their wretched nonconference stretch of losses to Oakland, Pitt, Austin Peay, and Charleston.
An updated cut-line projection is coming up.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Lillard Time and other Assorted Fun
Three more tournaments kicked off this weekend:
BIG SKY TOURNAMENT (QF Saturdaay at higher seed, SF/Finals Tues/Wed at Montana)
*TV: The title game will be on ESPN2 at 9PM on Wed.
*Format: The top 6 teams advance with the Northerns (Arizona and Colorado) as well as Sacramento State staying home.
*At-Large Potential: Montana and Weber State have a chance to make noise once they win the tournament, but otherwise they'll settle for one of the consolation tournaments.
*Who to Watch: Montana and Weber State got the byes and are clearly the class of the league so it would be a major upset if they don't meet Wednesday night. The Grizzles have home court as the top seed, but Weber has Damian Lillard, one of the nation's best scorers, who could be this year's version of Harold "the Show" Arceneaux who helped Weber upset UNC back in the late 90s.
SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT (Sat-Tues in Sioux Falls)
*TV: Finals are 9PM Tuesday on the duece.
*Format: Eight of the league's teams play. South Dakota was ineligible and IPFW and UMKC weren't QUITE good enough.
*At-Large Potential: None. Their last at-large was back in '91 when Green Bay made it with a shooter named Tony Bennett leading the way. Ugh.
*Who to Watch: Oral Roberts won the league by two games, but second seeded SD State is playing its home state and kenpom has them as the better team. They're the heavy favorites to be playing on national TV on Tuesday.
SUN BELT TOURNAMENT (Sat-Tues in Hot Springs):
*TV: The finals are Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2.
*Format: UL-Monroe was ineligible because of their APR, but otherwise all 11 teams go to Hot Springs.
*At-Large Potential: The Sun Belt is always one of those conferences teetering on the edge of getting more than one bid, especially with strong teams from Western Kentucky and South Alabama recently, but it's unusual that they break through. Middle Tennessee is a really good team which probably would have a chance if it had pulled off a win at Vandy last month, but as it is, it's win or go to the NIT for the Blue Raiders.
*Who to Watch: Denver would be the heavy favorite if MTSU gets knocked off and has an honest shot in the finals. UALR is actually the second seed with a nominal home court advantage in their home state, but they'd be hard pressed to pull off the upsets.
BIG SKY TOURNAMENT (QF Saturdaay at higher seed, SF/Finals Tues/Wed at Montana)
*TV: The title game will be on ESPN2 at 9PM on Wed.
*Format: The top 6 teams advance with the Northerns (Arizona and Colorado) as well as Sacramento State staying home.
*At-Large Potential: Montana and Weber State have a chance to make noise once they win the tournament, but otherwise they'll settle for one of the consolation tournaments.
*Who to Watch: Montana and Weber State got the byes and are clearly the class of the league so it would be a major upset if they don't meet Wednesday night. The Grizzles have home court as the top seed, but Weber has Damian Lillard, one of the nation's best scorers, who could be this year's version of Harold "the Show" Arceneaux who helped Weber upset UNC back in the late 90s.
SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT (Sat-Tues in Sioux Falls)
*TV: Finals are 9PM Tuesday on the duece.
*Format: Eight of the league's teams play. South Dakota was ineligible and IPFW and UMKC weren't QUITE good enough.
*At-Large Potential: None. Their last at-large was back in '91 when Green Bay made it with a shooter named Tony Bennett leading the way. Ugh.
*Who to Watch: Oral Roberts won the league by two games, but second seeded SD State is playing its home state and kenpom has them as the better team. They're the heavy favorites to be playing on national TV on Tuesday.
SUN BELT TOURNAMENT (Sat-Tues in Hot Springs):
*TV: The finals are Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2.
*Format: UL-Monroe was ineligible because of their APR, but otherwise all 11 teams go to Hot Springs.
*At-Large Potential: The Sun Belt is always one of those conferences teetering on the edge of getting more than one bid, especially with strong teams from Western Kentucky and South Alabama recently, but it's unusual that they break through. Middle Tennessee is a really good team which probably would have a chance if it had pulled off a win at Vandy last month, but as it is, it's win or go to the NIT for the Blue Raiders.
*Who to Watch: Denver would be the heavy favorite if MTSU gets knocked off and has an honest shot in the finals. UALR is actually the second seed with a nominal home court advantage in their home state, but they'd be hard pressed to pull off the upsets.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Post #4
Things are heating up in the mid-major tournaments as the first real at-large caliber teams will take the court today in the MVC and WCC, and we're also less than 24 hours from the first dance card getting punched. Let's take a quick look at where we stand right now. The first group are the locks, teams which don't need to do anything besides not get on probation in the next nine days to go dancing. As I calculate, there are 29 teams from 10 conferences, meaning that this group will have over half (at least 19) of the 37 at-large spots in the tournament.
LOCKS:
That leaves a group of 31 teams fighting for what is currently 18 spots. We know that not all of these teams are made equal. Virginia, Alabama, Iowa State, and New Mexico, for instance, probably could easily be bumped up already. One more win would remove all doubt and even two straight losses the next two weekends would probably not knock them out. But we're being conservative, so until we're sure, out they stay. On the other hand, there are some teams on this list that are probably very fringe top at large candidates at the moment - Nevada, Arizona, and Ole Miss - I'm looking at you. Again though, we're being inclusive.
Realistically, the number dwindles a little due to conference affiliation. The CAA might get two teams, but it won't get three. If VCU and Drexel don't meet on Monday night in Richmond, the team that did make it will sweat out the week and the other can make plans to play in the NIT. Similarly in the Pac-12, there's almost certainly a two team cap. Most likely those two will be Cal and Washington, but Arizona or Oregon make noise or win the tournament this week, I would be very surprised to see both of the top two in that conference still make it (not that they're locks by any stretch right now).
The NCAA Tournament selection committee votes teams in in stages based on how many votes they get from the panel during a given round. For the purposes of this exercise let's put Memphis, Iona, Nevada, Harvard, Drexel, and Washington as conference winners. That leaves 25 teams fighting for 18 spots. We know that there will inevitably be some upsets, but even with the group above being pretty weak, almost all of them make the field. Here's a tiered look at the field, starting with the teams I think are safest right now:
first pass teams - Iowa State, Alabama, Virginia, New Mexico, Creighton, BYU, Cincy, Saint Louis (10 spots for 17 teams)
Then your next tier:
second pass - Texas, South Florida, Miami (7 spots for 14 teams)
So now we have HALF of the below getting spots - Northwestern, Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, NC State, Colorado State, Xavier, St Joseph's, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Miss, VCU. I think your rank order on the right side of the bubble is something like -
VCU, UConn, Seton Hall (FIRST FOUR CUTLINE) Southern Miss, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Xavier
I don't think that the two Pac-12 teams have much of a shot. I don't think that St Joseph's can overcome being fourth in the pecking order in their own conference with no real heft in the profile. Ole Miss is a fringe team. NC State beat no one. Northwestern did, and came close a few other times, but that's just no quite enough, at least not right now. The toughest call was West Virginia. There's a good case that they ought to be in given the field, but ten teams from the Big East in somewhat of a down year (at least at the top) will hurt one of those schools at the end, and West Virginia, with seven losses in ten games, seems likelier than UConn right now.
LOCKS:
Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, Vandy, North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, UNLV, San Diego State, Temple, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, St Mary's, Murray State
That leaves a group of 31 teams fighting for what is currently 18 spots. We know that not all of these teams are made equal. Virginia, Alabama, Iowa State, and New Mexico, for instance, probably could easily be bumped up already. One more win would remove all doubt and even two straight losses the next two weekends would probably not knock them out. But we're being conservative, so until we're sure, out they stay. On the other hand, there are some teams on this list that are probably very fringe top at large candidates at the moment - Nevada, Arizona, and Ole Miss - I'm looking at you. Again though, we're being inclusive.
Northwestern, Iowa State, Texas, South Florida, Cincy, Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Virginia, Miami, NC State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Saint Louis, St Joseph's, Xavier, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Miss, Memphis, BYU, Nevada, Drexel, VCU, Harvard, and Iona
Realistically, the number dwindles a little due to conference affiliation. The CAA might get two teams, but it won't get three. If VCU and Drexel don't meet on Monday night in Richmond, the team that did make it will sweat out the week and the other can make plans to play in the NIT. Similarly in the Pac-12, there's almost certainly a two team cap. Most likely those two will be Cal and Washington, but Arizona or Oregon make noise or win the tournament this week, I would be very surprised to see both of the top two in that conference still make it (not that they're locks by any stretch right now).
The NCAA Tournament selection committee votes teams in in stages based on how many votes they get from the panel during a given round. For the purposes of this exercise let's put Memphis, Iona, Nevada, Harvard, Drexel, and Washington as conference winners. That leaves 25 teams fighting for 18 spots. We know that there will inevitably be some upsets, but even with the group above being pretty weak, almost all of them make the field. Here's a tiered look at the field, starting with the teams I think are safest right now:
first pass teams - Iowa State, Alabama, Virginia, New Mexico, Creighton, BYU, Cincy, Saint Louis (10 spots for 17 teams)
Then your next tier:
second pass - Texas, South Florida, Miami (7 spots for 14 teams)
So now we have HALF of the below getting spots - Northwestern, Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, NC State, Colorado State, Xavier, St Joseph's, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Miss, VCU. I think your rank order on the right side of the bubble is something like -
VCU, UConn, Seton Hall (FIRST FOUR CUTLINE) Southern Miss, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Xavier
I don't think that the two Pac-12 teams have much of a shot. I don't think that St Joseph's can overcome being fourth in the pecking order in their own conference with no real heft in the profile. Ole Miss is a fringe team. NC State beat no one. Northwestern did, and came close a few other times, but that's just no quite enough, at least not right now. The toughest call was West Virginia. There's a good case that they ought to be in given the field, but ten teams from the Big East in somewhat of a down year (at least at the top) will hurt one of those schools at the end, and West Virginia, with seven losses in ten games, seems likelier than UConn right now.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Day 4 Begins
I'm watching this battle between VMI and Winthrop in the Big South semis and something struck me about these gold Under Armour uniforms VMI is wearing. Something about them was soothing, familiar...right.
Oh. Well played Under Armour. Let's hope you didn't charge VMI the full rate for that design.
Last night's bubble battles were good for the Big East and bad for the Atlantic Ten. South Florida got its 12th conference win by winning AT Louisville in the YumDome while Cincy got to 11-6 with a win against Marquette. On the other hand, St Joseph's blew the good will they got from beating Temple this weekend by losing to Saint Bonaventure, Dayton saw its bubble pretty much pop with a bad loss to Richmond, and UMass, which was to be sure a fringe bubble team, blew a lead late in OT to lose to Temple by a bucket.
Colorado State had a huge comeback win over UNLV at home last night and now you'll hear their a lot next week assuming they can win at last place Air Force this weekend. They're an RPI darling, ranking in the top 25 and holding three wins over the top 50 in that metric. The one problem is that they haven't won away from - just 4-10 outside of Fort Collins. To be fair road wins is a little bit of an overrated category. You always hear about how no tournament games are on the road - true enough, but there certainly aren't any on the road. The Rams are 2-0 on neutral courts with a chance to do more damage next week, but they haven't won a league road game yet with just one to go. For a team whose best wins out of conference were Colorado and Montana at home just holding serve at home, albeit against solid opposition, shouldn't be enough. Let's see them make it to the Mountain West Finals before putting them in. Even in a weak year, I'm not sure they've done enough right now.
Three tournaments that we already previewed kick off tonight. Three more are tomorrow:
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament (Fri-Mon in Richmond)
*Format: 12 teams, four days, one winner. Perfection.
*TV: Championship is on ESPN at 7PM on Monday. It seems a little surprising that the semis don't find their way onto the Family of Networks in something other than an online capacity.
*At-Large Potential: Drexel and VCU are both fighting for spots with a final between the two the best chance for the CAA to be a multi-bid conference once again. Drexel hasn't really beaten anyone but a loss in the championship game puts them at 27-6. Past history isn't supposed to matter but after VCU and George Mason went from controversial inclusion to Final Fours, how will that factor in?
*Who to Watch: Those two teams are your favorites, but the league is deep with quality teams. George Mason, Old Dominion, and Georgia State have all shown themselves good enough to win this tournament, although the Panthers will have a tougher time having missed out on getting one of the four byes (they're seeded sixth).
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament (Fri-Mon in Springfield)
*Format: All ten teams make the trip to Springfield.
*TV: Monday night at 7PM on ESPN2 for the championship game.
*At-Large Potential: Iona's best wins are over St Joseph's, Nevada, and Marshall, so they're pretty fringy despite an RPI of 41, but the win total is gaudy and they have some national notoriety this year. They'll be watching on Sunday if they lose on Monday.
*Who to Watch: Scott Machado, Momo Jones and Tim Cluess' Gaels are your easy favorite. Loyola, Fairfield and Manhattan finished with at least 12 wins and all but Fairfield scored a win over Iona in the regular season so there are some contenders. This isn't a league deep with NCAA Tournament teams, but it's a solid mid-major that has multiple good teams once again this year.
Southern Conference Tournament (Fri-Mon in Asheville)
*Format: The league's 12 schools get together for the oldest conference tournament in America.
*TV: ESPN2 has the title game at 9 on Monday.
*At-Large Potential: Davidson stunned Kansas earlier this year and will be a sexy 13 over 4 pick if they win their next three games, but they don't have much of a shot at anything besides an NIT if they don't.
*Who to Watch: Davidson is a legitimately good team; good enough to play with most anyone in the country, if not win. The other 11 teams; not so much. College of Charleston is probably your next best team, having beaten the Wildcats once already, but they didn't get one of the four byes because of the league's antiquated divisional format. That might mean that Wofford (second in the South) is the best chance to spring an upset even despite a 22 point loss early last month to Davidson.
I haven't addressed last night's debacle in Chapel Hill because the less said about that, the better.
Oh. Well played Under Armour. Let's hope you didn't charge VMI the full rate for that design.
Last night's bubble battles were good for the Big East and bad for the Atlantic Ten. South Florida got its 12th conference win by winning AT Louisville in the YumDome while Cincy got to 11-6 with a win against Marquette. On the other hand, St Joseph's blew the good will they got from beating Temple this weekend by losing to Saint Bonaventure, Dayton saw its bubble pretty much pop with a bad loss to Richmond, and UMass, which was to be sure a fringe bubble team, blew a lead late in OT to lose to Temple by a bucket.
Colorado State had a huge comeback win over UNLV at home last night and now you'll hear their a lot next week assuming they can win at last place Air Force this weekend. They're an RPI darling, ranking in the top 25 and holding three wins over the top 50 in that metric. The one problem is that they haven't won away from - just 4-10 outside of Fort Collins. To be fair road wins is a little bit of an overrated category. You always hear about how no tournament games are on the road - true enough, but there certainly aren't any on the road. The Rams are 2-0 on neutral courts with a chance to do more damage next week, but they haven't won a league road game yet with just one to go. For a team whose best wins out of conference were Colorado and Montana at home just holding serve at home, albeit against solid opposition, shouldn't be enough. Let's see them make it to the Mountain West Finals before putting them in. Even in a weak year, I'm not sure they've done enough right now.
Three tournaments that we already previewed kick off tonight. Three more are tomorrow:
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament (Fri-Mon in Richmond)
*Format: 12 teams, four days, one winner. Perfection.
*TV: Championship is on ESPN at 7PM on Monday. It seems a little surprising that the semis don't find their way onto the Family of Networks in something other than an online capacity.
*At-Large Potential: Drexel and VCU are both fighting for spots with a final between the two the best chance for the CAA to be a multi-bid conference once again. Drexel hasn't really beaten anyone but a loss in the championship game puts them at 27-6. Past history isn't supposed to matter but after VCU and George Mason went from controversial inclusion to Final Fours, how will that factor in?
*Who to Watch: Those two teams are your favorites, but the league is deep with quality teams. George Mason, Old Dominion, and Georgia State have all shown themselves good enough to win this tournament, although the Panthers will have a tougher time having missed out on getting one of the four byes (they're seeded sixth).
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament (Fri-Mon in Springfield)
*Format: All ten teams make the trip to Springfield.
*TV: Monday night at 7PM on ESPN2 for the championship game.
*At-Large Potential: Iona's best wins are over St Joseph's, Nevada, and Marshall, so they're pretty fringy despite an RPI of 41, but the win total is gaudy and they have some national notoriety this year. They'll be watching on Sunday if they lose on Monday.
*Who to Watch: Scott Machado, Momo Jones and Tim Cluess' Gaels are your easy favorite. Loyola, Fairfield and Manhattan finished with at least 12 wins and all but Fairfield scored a win over Iona in the regular season so there are some contenders. This isn't a league deep with NCAA Tournament teams, but it's a solid mid-major that has multiple good teams once again this year.
Southern Conference Tournament (Fri-Mon in Asheville)
*Format: The league's 12 schools get together for the oldest conference tournament in America.
*TV: ESPN2 has the title game at 9 on Monday.
*At-Large Potential: Davidson stunned Kansas earlier this year and will be a sexy 13 over 4 pick if they win their next three games, but they don't have much of a shot at anything besides an NIT if they don't.
*Who to Watch: Davidson is a legitimately good team; good enough to play with most anyone in the country, if not win. The other 11 teams; not so much. College of Charleston is probably your next best team, having beaten the Wildcats once already, but they didn't get one of the four byes because of the league's antiquated divisional format. That might mean that Wofford (second in the South) is the best chance to spring an upset even despite a 22 point loss early last month to Davidson.
I haven't addressed last night's debacle in Chapel Hill because the less said about that, the better.
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