Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Tournament Time, Leap Day and March 1 Starts

Four more tournaments tip off in the next two nights, including one that could be a potential three bid league if things break right.

Patriot League Tournament
(QF Wed, SF Sat, championship Wed 3/7 at higher seed)

*Format: All eight teams play in a single elimination bracket.
*TV: SF and championship (7 PM) will be on CBS Sports.
*At-Large Potential: Patriot League teams have never gotten an at-large.
*Who to Watch: Regular season champion Bucknell and second-seeded Lehigh are the class of the league and the favorites to meet in the finals. Should that happen the game will be in Lewisburg, PA at Bucknell's home court which could be the difference. Bucknell swept the regular season and tournament last year and Lehigh did it the year before. The regular season champ has represented the PL in the Big Dance every season since 2005.

America East Tournament (Play in game Thurs, QF/SF Sat/Sun at Hartford, championship Sat 3/10 at higher seed)
*Format: Bracket. All nine conference teams qualified
*TV: Final is on ESPN2 next Saturday at 11 AM.
*At-Large Potential: America East has never had an at-large team.
*Who to Watch: The top two seeds are Stony Brook and Vermont, both of whom won 20 games overall and at least 13 in conference. The Seawolves are 17-2 since Christmas while Vermont has won 13 of 15. Those two will be the heavy favorites especially as the host for the first two games is about the seventh best team in the conference. Also worth noting is that play-in game between UMBC (4-25) and Binghamton (1-28) could possibly be the worst postseason game ever.

Missouri Valley Tournament (Thurs-Sun in Saint Louis)
*Format: Bracket with all ten league teams.
*TV: Finals are on CBS Sports at 1 PM.
*At-Large Potential: Wichita State is in no matter what. Creighton would do well not to lose a stupid one in their first game, but even if they do, the MVC should get its first at-large since way back in 2007.
*Who to Watch: Arch Madness! The two teams mentioned above are your favorites. They're the only two to finish above .500 in league games, although it's worth noting that the next five teams all finished 9-9. Doug McDermott might be the best player in the country, averaging 23.1/8.1 on 60.7% from the field and 47.9% from three. He, not Harrison Barnes, is the answer to the trivia question "Who is the best college sophomore from Ames, Iowa". Speaking of which how do Iowa State fans feel about those two getting away?

Northeast Conference Tournament (Thursday, Sunday, Wednesday at higher seed)
*Format: How is this even a tournament? No neutral site games, no games on back to back days, and possibly worst of all, the semifinals get reseeded so as if home court isn't enough of an advantage for the higher seeds, a six or seven that pulls a big upset gets to go play on the league champion's home court. 8 of the eleven eligible teams qualified - Mount St Mary's, St Francis PA, Fairleigh Dickinson and Bryant (ineligible) stay at home.
*TV: Final is Wednesday at 7PM on ESPN2.
*At-Large Potential: The NEC hasn't had a seed better than a 15 since 2002.
*Who to Watch: Wagner is only the number two seed after losing their last game of the season, but the computers have them as the best team by far. Danny Hurley's team beat Pitt earlier in the season and have a gaudy 24-5 record. That being said, Long Island is the back to back conference regular season champion and last year's tournament champ, plus they have home court in the finals, so it should be a good one.

345 Alive

It's that wonderful time of the year where we basketball fans are in bracket heaven. Teams large and small fight to the death to first make the NCAA Tournament and then subsequently, once there, to win the thing. Or if you're one of those small conferences that gets a 15 seed every year, fights to win just that first game so you can have your own One Shining Moment. Does anything touch this? Of course not.

First up are the conference tournaments. Two have already started. Three more kick off tonight and four more start on Thursday, which just so happens to be March 1st. By that time Championship Week will have kicked into high gear. Here's a look at the nine conference tournaments kicking off in the first four days of championship week.

Big South Tournament (1st round tonight @ campus sites, QF/SF Wed/Thurs at Asheville, championshp Saturday at higher seed)
Format: Traditional bracket. All ten full DI teams qualified.
TV: Semis are on ESPNU for some reason; tournament finals are noon on Saturday on ESPN2.
At-Large potential: None. The winner is almost certainly headed for a 16 seed.
Who to Watch: UNC-Asheville won the conference by 4 games at 16-2. If an upset happens it's probably by the #2 seed Coastal Carolina which beat LSU and Clemson to start the season.

Horizon League Tournament (1st round tomorrow @ campus sites, QF/SF Fri/Sat at Valpo, championship Tuesday at higher seed)
*Format: All ten teams qualify. The top two get a bye in the first two rounds while the other eight have to play an extra two games just to make it to the semis.
*TV: Semis on are on the U; Championship is at 9PM on ESPN.
*At-Large Potential: None. Cleveland State was 20-4 with a win over Vandy before a late five game skid.
*Who to Watch: Valpo gets the benefit of only playing two games, both at home. Cleveland State is probably the best team (see: win over Vandy). Butler is, of course, the dark horse. They're the fifth seed, although they finished tied for third, but I think Brad Stevens has proven himself in a single elimination format. 7 teams finished above .500 (both overall and in conference games) so this may be one of the more open tournaments.

Atlantic Sun Tournament (Wed-Sat at Mercer)
*Format: The top eight teams qualified for a regular eight team bracket. Sadly, 0-18 Kennesaw State did not get a chance to win the league's bid, nor did Stetson.
*TV: The title game is on the deuce at 7.
*At-Large Potential: None. Belmont is #22 in the kenpom ratings, but I'm thinking that a 7 loss A-Sun team doesn't have much of a shot.
*Who to Watch: Belmont and Mercer should make the championship. The Bruins are the better team, losing in Cameron by a point in their opener, but Mercer isn't bad (they did the impossible and won at Georgia Tech) and they have home court.

Ohio Valley Tournament (Wed-Sat in Nashville)
*Format: Eight of the ten eligible teams qualified, Eastern Illinois and UT-Martin were left out as was provisional DI member SIU-Edwardsville. The top four get byes into the QF and the top two get an additional bye into the SF.
*TV: Murray State's first game will be on ESPNU Friday night, and the title game is at 2 the next day on ESPN2.
*At-Large Potential: Murray State is in. They should be a protected seed with a tournament title, but they're still probably in the 8/9 game at worst if they lose their first, more likely in the 7 range. This is the first true bid thief kicking off. That would be the first at-large for the OVC since Middle Tennessee in 1987.
*Who to Watch: Anyone that watches basketball knows about Murray State and Isaiah Canaan leading his people to the promised land. Tennessee State is the number two seed and beat the Racers at home a few weeks back so they're you're upset pick, but in reality no one should be able to touch Murray.

West Coast Conference Tournament (Wed-Sat. Monday in Vegas)
*Format: Somehow the WCC manages to drag a nine team tournament out for FIVE rounds. There's a Les Robinson game to start with while seven teams get a bye. Four more teams get a second bye, and two of those teams get an unprecedented third bye meaning that if 0-16 Santa Clara goes on a miracle run they'll be playing their FOURTH game in as many days while St Mary's will be fresh. At least everyone in the league gets a trip to Vegas. Brandon Davies may get suspended again if they stick around too long.
*TV: Plenty of action. The quarters are on the U, ESPN2 has the semis, and ESPN has the title game Monday at 9.
*At-Large Potential: BYU, St Mary's, and Gonzaga are all pretty set, although I'm not sure why. BYU in particular went 1-3 against the top two in the league and had two more wins against non DI teams (2) than they did against tournament teams outside of conference, unless you think Oregon makes a run this next couple of weeks.
*Who to Watch: Dellevadova! Brandon Davies! Robert Sacre! It should be a great tournament even if Omar Samhan and Blake Steppe aren't walking through that door. Gonzaga snapped an incredible 11 straight regular season title stretch, but they've been in 14 straight WCC title games and 16 in 17 years. It's probably them or St Mary's if only because BYU plays an extra game, but it would be the greatest story ever if 0-16 Santa Clara won 5 games in a row to take it - sweet loss to them, Jay Wright!