LOCKS:
Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, Vandy, North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, UNLV, San Diego State, Temple, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, St Mary's, Murray State
That leaves a group of 31 teams fighting for what is currently 18 spots. We know that not all of these teams are made equal. Virginia, Alabama, Iowa State, and New Mexico, for instance, probably could easily be bumped up already. One more win would remove all doubt and even two straight losses the next two weekends would probably not knock them out. But we're being conservative, so until we're sure, out they stay. On the other hand, there are some teams on this list that are probably very fringe top at large candidates at the moment - Nevada, Arizona, and Ole Miss - I'm looking at you. Again though, we're being inclusive.
Northwestern, Iowa State, Texas, South Florida, Cincy, Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Virginia, Miami, NC State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Saint Louis, St Joseph's, Xavier, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Miss, Memphis, BYU, Nevada, Drexel, VCU, Harvard, and Iona
Realistically, the number dwindles a little due to conference affiliation. The CAA might get two teams, but it won't get three. If VCU and Drexel don't meet on Monday night in Richmond, the team that did make it will sweat out the week and the other can make plans to play in the NIT. Similarly in the Pac-12, there's almost certainly a two team cap. Most likely those two will be Cal and Washington, but Arizona or Oregon make noise or win the tournament this week, I would be very surprised to see both of the top two in that conference still make it (not that they're locks by any stretch right now).
The NCAA Tournament selection committee votes teams in in stages based on how many votes they get from the panel during a given round. For the purposes of this exercise let's put Memphis, Iona, Nevada, Harvard, Drexel, and Washington as conference winners. That leaves 25 teams fighting for 18 spots. We know that there will inevitably be some upsets, but even with the group above being pretty weak, almost all of them make the field. Here's a tiered look at the field, starting with the teams I think are safest right now:
first pass teams - Iowa State, Alabama, Virginia, New Mexico, Creighton, BYU, Cincy, Saint Louis (10 spots for 17 teams)
Then your next tier:
second pass - Texas, South Florida, Miami (7 spots for 14 teams)
So now we have HALF of the below getting spots - Northwestern, Seton Hall, West Virginia, UConn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, NC State, Colorado State, Xavier, St Joseph's, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Miss, VCU. I think your rank order on the right side of the bubble is something like -
VCU, UConn, Seton Hall (FIRST FOUR CUTLINE) Southern Miss, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Xavier
I don't think that the two Pac-12 teams have much of a shot. I don't think that St Joseph's can overcome being fourth in the pecking order in their own conference with no real heft in the profile. Ole Miss is a fringe team. NC State beat no one. Northwestern did, and came close a few other times, but that's just no quite enough, at least not right now. The toughest call was West Virginia. There's a good case that they ought to be in given the field, but ten teams from the Big East in somewhat of a down year (at least at the top) will hurt one of those schools at the end, and West Virginia, with seven losses in ten games, seems likelier than UConn right now.
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